Wallet
The oil price — is only 1/3 of success
That is an opinion of the vice-premier Alexey Kudrin
The success was started six years ago
— 2003 has been already called the best for Russian economy for the period of the newest history. But several experts consider the main reason of all economic successes (growth of internal gross product, growth of population"s income and etc.) to be high price for oil. What is your mind?
— Actually, there is an opinion that our successes are the results of high prices for oil. But for last four years dynamics of influence of oil prices to Russian economy has changed- it is well-known. The situation within the country is under the big influence of inner factors, processes of growth, happening in other sectors of Russian economy. Nowadays oil determines approximately the third part of the rates of economic development. And so, whatever our opponents say, it"s possible to confirm that we"ve got stable tempo of growth-more than middle in the world.
— Could the government in 2003 use the chance, appearing due to profitable for Russia situation in the oil market, for any breakthrough in carrying out structural reforms of economy?
— I can remark that the present results are connected with the reforms, we started a little earlier. Any economic reform gives a result not at the same month or year, but in several years. When this regularity is "caught" by most entrepreneurs, they started tailoring it, make it be a motivation while making decisions. The process is not quick.
So, everything, we have now, is the result of the work, made 4-6 years ago. Our present actions will bring to any results in future. Somewhere the results will appear in a year, somewhere, from point of view of economy and the game rules-in 4-6 years.
There are populists, flaunting the fact they have allegedly the secrets of immediate economic victories, but this is the position of temporary people: " we don"t care if there is a flood after us". If to look at future and to think about future, it"s necessary to tune to serious detailed work, which will bring the result, may be not so quick as it"s wanted to be, but certain.
Structural reforms are going ahead. Another case that the processes are not seen for everybody yet, and often we have to explain in details the meaning of enough complex decisions. For example, at the end of last year a new edition of the law about currency regulation was accepted. Discussion of the law and its accepting -it was titanic work: it was necessary to agree all interests, to take under consideration all demands, which will be necessary to use while liberalizing movement of capitals in economy… Frankly speaking, today we have taken responsibility, much more than it is seen from the first sight. We took responsibility to announce that since the second half of 2004 (finally- after 2007) management of Russian economy in credit-monetary sphere will come true harder than ever before. We haven"t just opened important economic sluices for free movement of capitals, but guaranteed running such things, which will not allow for these free sluices to work against us.
Emission against currency store
— The inflation due to the results of last year appeared to be 12% exactly. Compared to the countries, which are traditionally called as economically developed, it is very much. When will Russia be able to provide inflation on the level of 1-2% a year?
— In one of my performances I said that in 2008 we would be able to live at 3% inflation. But this is a point of choice. Inflation is not a basic and necessary instrument of our economy. Life standard can increase and at 12% inflation. When we decline inflation to forecast situation, it is good- prices will not rise so quickly, and salaries will not have to overtake them constantly. But everyone should understand that during the period it"s important not to lose incentives for growth and development of economy.
Besides, we have structural reorganization of prices in energy industry-both inside and outside. The price for gas will grow faster that inflation. And the main point here is not the figure of inflation or growth of tariffs itself, but behavior of enterprises in these conditions. Today they are adapted to the schedule, we offered for several years ahead. It determines their behavior.
For some structures inflation decreasing will require serious reorganization. It will necessary to win on the quality of the production. Changes of motivations and economic factors will be necessary to adapt. The market must be accustomed to it.
So, we think, moderate inflation declining is a usual target and its fulfillment doesn"t disturb solutions of other key problems.
— There is one more result of last year- these are unprecedented gold-currency reserves. According to it some economists express their opinions that simple saving gold-currency reserves is not positive for economy because this money is taken out of turnover and doesn"t work. Some part of the reserves was supposed to be invested in economy and to be used for payment of external debt. What is your opinion?
— Our gold-currency reserves are very big truly. But against these gold-currency reserves there are rubles in economy. So we convert them. If to speak tentatively, the situation looks like this: currency was imported into the country, the Central Bank bought the currency out and produced rubles. But it is so harmless emission, because there are dollars against rubles. By other words, these rubles are ensured. They might be a little excess for economy from point of view of real monetary mass and turnover of capital. But they are ensured by dollars. And if we take away the part of the currency reserve, we"ll not have this ensuring Russian ruble any more.
Someone even said that we have behaved like Currency Board for last three years. It means the situation was like one when not the state determined rules of currency conversion in the country but some external currency board. It is very serious and hard level of monetary mass management. Even it is not the best way of managing. It was used in Argentina and it was not successful finally. But the theory "emission against currency, being kept in state reserves" is considered to be acceptable.
I"m sure politics should be more complicated that one, carried out by Currency Board, but it is obvious absolutely: gold-currency reserves any way ensure all obligations of the country, including private ones. Always gold-currency reserves are commensurable with the level of import of the country. The country must have gold-currency reserves in the amount of its six-months period import at least. If the indicator is less, nobody will sell goods to the country, because of the possible risks for their payment.
Now Russia has got gold-currency reserve in the amount of 12-months import. It means that Russia is possible to have trade with. By other words, gold-currency reserves are not kept uselessly but make the international trade much easier. Besides, if to be precise, they are not kept as just money. They are converted into securities and bring profit to Russian state, providing its economic stability. Stabilization fund is the second, not less important position, and there might be more variants of actions. But gold-currency reserve must have more severe frames of its usage. It ensures stability of national currency and can"t be used for other purposes.
— Last year some economists started speaking about possibility of entering new " three-ruble gold coin", that means currency, ensured by gold. To your mind, is return to gold standart possible now in any way?
— No, it isn"t. In theory, of course, it may be discussed. But since 1949 all currency has got floating rate, that is nonsense for dollars.
Dollar gives ruble a chance
— Last period of time ruble strengthening alarmed many people-as experts so average citizens, having dollar saving habitually. To your opinion, how long will the fall of dollars continue? Is there any border, after which a stable ruble can be dangerous for Russian economy? You know, nowadays in Europe there are serious worries of the rise of ruble rate.
— The fall of dollar rate can cause positive effect for a while, but can have unpleasant consequences. However, these are problems of Americans. But Russia, I think, will be able to use the situation for its favour. But for getting this favour, the following ingredients are needed: importers should orientate to purchases of modern technologies and equipment in the USA, exporters should increase sale of their production to Europe, and all Russians should realize that a ruble is reliable means of saving. Even more reliable than a dollar or an euro. The present economic and financial indicators are proofs for it, though the citizens still don"t believe in it.
Fall of a dollar can"t cause fall of a ruble. A ruble can be weakened just in the case of fall of prices for oil less than 18-20-dollar level. I can remark that credit-monetary policy has been confirmed for the nearest period, and the Central Bank of Russia will implement proper correcting policy not to allow sharp ruble fluctuation.
In 2003 the real rate of ruble to dollar has been strengthened at 19,1%, to euro has been weakened at 1,1%. As for the whole basket of currency, participating in the trade balance of the country, ruble has been strengthened just at 4,1%. So exporters have no reasons to worry: 36% of the external trade balance of Russia is trading with Europe. And only 4% is our export to the USA. But it is getting profitable to import from there, and we get a chance to carry out modernization of technologies and equipment on profitable terms.
By the way, for native enterprises ruble strengthening is useful- necessary to make brainstorm, to think of the quality of goods, its competitive skills.
I understand, the citizens are worried what to do with personal savings in the given situation. Ruble deposits in banks, I repeat, are reliable means of savings. There is one more way to keep money. It is to invest in securities with the help of investing funds. Russian fund market has given profit from 30 till 60% for last three years. There is one more possibility to invest money in real estate, in land. It isn"t worth keeping money in stockings. As for dollars, this currency will be among principle players in Russian market for long time.
— Where do you personally keep your money?
— I keep money in rubles in Sberbank.
50-ruble banknote reminds about Petersburg
— Just from exterior, from art esthetic point of view, what currency do you personally like more?
— Difficult to say. But, generally speaking, I have special feelings over sights of Saint-Petersburg, Moscow, Archangelsk- the cities, where I have lived and live now. So, you can write frankly that Minister of Finance Kudrin likes Russian money most of all. Yes, it"s right. Here on 50-ruble banknote there is Arrow of Vasilievskiy island. This is my favourite place in the world, and thanks to our money I can remember these places every day. Once I spent a very happy period of time in my life on the embankment with monuments to Peter the First in Archangelsk, where our family was living for some time in the period of my father"s service there a as skilled military man. This embankment is represented on 500-ruble banknote.
— What is your opinion about ability of electronic money to replace paper money greatly?
— Not in some time, but just now they are doing it, and our country will have to feel it. Technical progress is impossible to stop- people choose what is comfortable, mobile, modern. Even ten years ago there were a few people to realize that mobile phones, computers would rush into our life. The same will happen with electronic money.
Natalya Nikiforova
